Brazil’s international engagement must be more proactive and strategic, with a more contemporary view of international trade
By Mônica Sodré
February 9, 2026
Brazil in 2026 faces a quiet but decisive crossroads. While public debate focuses on short-term indicators and scandals, five structural transitions (climate, energy, digital, geopolitical and corporate) are redefining the rules of the global economic game. Our ability to anticipate and manage them will determine not only growth rates but our place in the world in the decades ahead.
The first challenge is ensuring that one of our main assets, agribusiness, remains a pillar of wealth amid the reshaping of the global agricultural chessboard and the shifting map of food production. These shifts are the result of a warming planet that saw 2025 become the third-hottest year on record, according to the European Union’s climate observatory, the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
Changes in rainfall patterns and rising average temperatures are no longer hypothetical scenarios. They are variables that affect the productivity of coffee, soy and cocoa and that define the country’s water-stress map. The crucial questions for public and private planning are these: Do we have clarity on how our economy will behave under different warming scenarios? Do we have a strategy to reduce and manage risks and vulnerabilities? Without a precise diagnosis of the impacts on employment, income and regional GDP, we are navigating in the dark and allocating resources inefficiently. It is strategic for the State to drive the necessary responses and to enable pathways for the productive sector’s engagement and adaptation.
At the same time, the energy transition demands new economic and fiscal engineering. That engineering must answer how we will finance the necessary shift to a less carbon-intensive economy, given that renewables do not generate revenue on the same scale and in the same proportion as their fossil alternatives. Oil today brings in around R$100 billion a year in taxes and sustains municipal and state budgets, according to 2024 data from the National Agency of Petroleum (ANP). Its horizon is now changing because of the depletion of mature fields and global pressure for decarbonization.
How, then, will we finance a low-carbon economy without affecting, in the short term, this important source of revenue for Brazil’s public budget? Moreover, the expansion of renewables runs up against chronic bottlenecks, such as the lack of transmission lines and storage capacity, and the curtailment of generated energy. This is not merely a technical issue. It is a geopolitical and economic-financial debate that will elevate the Northeast, with its renewable potential, to a new level of political prominence in the coming years.
Our international engagement must also be more proactive and strategic, with a more contemporary view of international trade. In a world fragmented by wars, with growing instability and protectionism, Brazil can be a stable global supplier of food, clean energy and essential minerals. To get there, Brazil must adapt to internationally required sustainability standards, as in the case of the EU-Mercosur Agreement. Beyond that, it is urgent to overcome the chronic lack of awareness about our solutions, such as biofuels and tropical agriculture techniques that sequester carbon. We must lead in the forums where metrics are defined, “tropicalizing” standards that currently do not favor us. We must also undertake a strategic effort to rebuild our image, which is still overshadowed by old chronic problems such as public security and deforestation.
On this same regional chessboard, the situation in Venezuela and the instability it projects onto Latin America and the entire globe are no longer peripheral issues. They have become part of the equation of sovereignty, energy and critical minerals, at a time when Brazil seeks to build governance, predictability and competitive positioning in these sectors. Venezuela holds some of the largest oil reserves in the world. Those reserves sit within a context of operational restrictions, institutional reconfiguration and strong influence from external geopolitical dynamics, and this comes precisely as the global energy and minerals system undergoes a profound reorganization. For Brazil, ignoring this surrounding context means giving up on exercising political and economic leadership in South America, at a time when stability, predictability and regional integration are becoming competitive advantages. It also means giving up on the country’s own international projection.
Adaptation will also need to be a corporate imperative. Extreme weather events already disrupt supply chains, affect labor productivity and demand operational resilience. Examples abound:
- refrigeration in food and medicine transport will need to be intensified;
- import and export operations will be affected by damage to port infrastructure;
- cooling centers for people will need to be created.
The change will also affect the insurance sector. It will demand new product lines, along with incentives to adopt sustainable techniques and tools as criteria for access to coverage. We will also need new models for financing Brazil’s food security, since public resources will not be enough to cover the production losses these events cause.
Finally, how will we position ourselves regarding the future of the digital economy? The digital economy is ceasing to be a commercial tool and becoming critical infrastructure for national security, with implications for sovereignty. Decisions about partnerships for smart grids, renewable energy and precision agriculture will determine the cost and speed of our transition to a low-carbon economy. They will also determine our degree of strategic autonomy and future competitiveness. These choices imply different levels of:
- exposure to foreign surveillance;
- vulnerability to international sanctions;
- technological dependence.
A clear example lies in the countryside. Data on soil, climate and productivity are sensitive assets, and if they are concentrated in foreign hands, they put sovereignty over our production at risk. Likewise, control over communication networks and satellites directly affects our ability to monitor our territory and maintain vital communications in times of crisis.
The performance of our economy, and the well-being of our people, depend on the choices made today in a changing world. A new year is beginning, with elections approaching and, therefore, new opportunities to make the choices that can no longer be postponed.
Mônica Sodré is CEO of Meridiana, a senior fellow at the Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI), and a political scientist with a PhD from the University of São Paulo.